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鈥淔rankly, most other applicants don鈥檛 have an MBA from Dartmouth and $200,000 in loans to repay.鈥� 

That鈥檚 what a candidate told me during a recent interview after naming a salary expectation far above the advertised bracket. 

The problem was clear: their experience didn鈥檛 justify the premium. The bracket itself was based on market averages. And the skills they gained from that MBA weren鈥檛 worth five or ten times more to us than someone who earned the same qualification at a fraction of the cost. 

That conversation stayed with me. It crystallized a theory I鈥檝e been developing: could part of the rise in unemployed college graduates be 蝉别濒蹿鈥搃苍蹿濒颈肠迟别诲? 

Degrees Still Pay Off 

Let鈥檚 be clear: college graduates are still better off. 

Decades of data show the same story: 

• College graduates consistently have lower unemployment rates than those without degrees. 

• They also earn significantly higher lifetime income 鈥� often more than $1 million extra over a career. 

• By 2031, 72% of U.S. jobs will require some form of higher education or training. () 

• Since 2010, rising education levels have already contributed more than $14.2 trillion in additional lifetime earnings across the United States. () 

Georgetown data also shows that recent graduates aged 22鈥�27 with a bachelor鈥檚 degree have unemployment rates around 4.4%, compared to roughly 6.5% for their same鈥揳ge peers without degrees. And as workers move into their 30s and 40s, this gap doesn鈥檛 shrink 鈥� it widens and becomes more stable. 

So this isn鈥檛 a case of degrees losing their value. The signal of a degree still matters. Employers still prefer it when all else is equal. 

The question is not whether a degree is valuable. The question is: at what cost? 

Long鈥揟erm Unemployment and a Growing Supply 

The share of long鈥搕erm unemployed (out of work for 6+ months) who are college graduates has grown 鈥� from about one鈥揻ifth a decade ago to roughly one鈥搕hird today. 

But here鈥檚 a critical point often missed: over the same period, the supply of degree holders has expanded. Between 2010 and 2020, the share of adults with a college degree increased from 38.5% to 45.2% 鈥� millions more graduates entering the workforce. () 

That helps explain why more degree holders now appear in unemployment statistics. It鈥檚 not just weaker demand 鈥� it鈥檚 also much larger supply. 

Expectations vs. Market Value 

What worries me most, however, is the growing mismatch between graduate salary expectations and market reality. 

For years, employers were willing to pay more simply because of the school brand. But that premium was always finite. 

In fact, research shows that premium can be substantial 鈥� but not limitless. Georgetown CEW finds that bachelor鈥檚 degree holders earn about 75% more in lifetime earnings than those with only a high school diploma. GMAC data shows that MBA graduates earn a median starting salary that鈥檚 77% higher than those with just a bachelor鈥檚. 

Those are significant returns. But they鈥檙e also bounded. Employers will not pay two or three times more just because someone went to a prestigious school or accumulated significant debt. 

And yet, that鈥檚 exactly what some graduates expect 鈥� not because their skills are dramatically more valuable, but because the price of their degree leaves them feeling they must ask for dramatically more. 

When expectations are inflated beyond what the market can bear, employers walk away. And the result isn鈥檛 higher salaries. It鈥檚 unemployment. 

The Market Is Shifting Toward Value 

For years, many graduates believed that simply holding a prestigious degree was enough to command higher salaries. Saddled with heavy debt, they entered the workforce demanding pay that employers increasingly refused to meet without seeing proportionate value. The result: a paradox of rising wage expectations alongside rising graduate unemployment. 

The market has started to correct. Employers have learned that prestige without performance isn鈥檛 worth the premium, and learners are voting with their feet.  

Over the past 25 years, enrollment at elite colleges 鈥� the top 2% of the most selective 鈥� grew by just 7%, while non-elite institutions expanded by roughly 60%. In the last few years alone, applications to leading public universities have surged by more than 40%, while Ivy League enrollments have barely budged. In fact, today more students are enrolled online vs on campus in the US for the first time! 

At the same time, employers report they are 37% less likely to favor Ivy League graduates than they were five years ago, turning instead toward universities that offer affordability, flexibility, and career-relevant skills. 

The signal is clear: demand is increasing where value is created, not where prestige is manufactured. The future belongs to institutions that deliver both skills and credentials at a fair cost 鈥� not to those clinging to outdated models that trade only on their name. 

Fewer Jobs Require Degrees 鈥� But Why? 

Another oft鈥揷ited trend is the decline in job postings requiring a four鈥搚ear degree. Since 2019, the share has dropped by about six percentage points. 

But this didn鈥檛 happen because employers suddenly decided degrees were irrelevant. It happened because the labor market was historically tight. Employers were forced to widen the funnel 鈥� and many discovered they could find capable talent without insisting on a degree. 

Degrees still give candidates an advantage. They鈥檙e just no longer treated as an absolute barrier to entry. 

The Real Question: Degree and Skills, But at What Cost? 

So let鈥檚 be clear: this isn鈥檛 the death of the degree. 

It鈥檚 the death of certainty. 

A degree is no longer a guarantee of employment, income, or stability. But it still matters 鈥� perhaps now more than ever. The difference is that employers are demanding both degrees and skills. 

The real issue is the value equation: 

• Degrees remain valuable. 

• But when the cost of earning one inflates salary expectations beyond what the market can justify, everyone loses 鈥� graduates, employers, and society. 

Closing Thought 

Education should open doors, not close them. It should equip learners with both the signal of a degree and the practical skills to adapt in a changing economy. And it should do so at a cost that makes sense. 

Because when education is affordable and relevant, it unlocks opportunity. When it鈥檚 overpriced, it can trap people in expectations the market won鈥檛 meet.